Pak-Afghan Relations

The NATO Lisbon Summit in November 2010, three declarations called upon the United States,NATO and Afghanistan to create conditions for “irreversible transition to full Afghan security responsibility and leadership” in all provinces by the end of 2014.
The proposed transition requires an increase in the pace towards preparedness, in particular towards strengthening and enabling the political, administrative, judicial and security institutions in Afghanistan to effectively manage the osttransition responsibilities. Secondly, a more supportive role by the regional countries, particularly Pakistan, Iran and China, is imperative to facilitate the transition process. With regard to the first prerequisite,efforts are under way in Afghanistan to find a workable framework for power-sharing with all ethnic groups, including the Taliban, to constitute a representative government in Kabul, with some basic ingredients of conflict-resolution and peace. As far as the second pre-requisite is concerned,Kabul’s focus has increasingly been on regional countries with an eye to the post-transition period.

These developments along with the recent Pak-US strategic dialogue and increasing interaction and bilateral engagement between Pakistan and Afghanistan describe how relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan, and certain other regional dynamics—particularly those related to security, terrorism and trade, etc.—are going to be transformed into new realities in the near future. In this backdrop, it iscrucial to assess the nature of evolving relations and alliances, explore the level of convergence and/or divergence of interests and foresee national and regional security determinants and variables in Southand Central Asian contexts.

This analytical report undertakes a part of this task and tries to explore emerging trends and prospects for Pak-Afghan relations and their implications for counter-terrorism and reduction in violence and insecurity in both countries in particular and the wider region in general.Historically, Pakistan and Afghanistan have rarely been at ease with each other despite the fact that both are Muslim neighboring countries, and share more than 2,500 kilometers of order, called Durand Line,which was demarcated in 1893 following an greement between the British Empire and the Afghan king.The Durand Line divides ethnic Pashtun tribes in the Pak-Afghan border areas.Ethnically, Pashtuns constitute the majority of the population of Afghanistan and also have considerable

population in Pakistan. They are Pashtu speaking people of southeastern Afghanistan and north western Pakistan. The Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan, which comprise seven tribal agencies are populated by a little over 3 million Pashtuns, in addition to the 28 million Pashtuns who live in Pakistan and the 15 million in Afghanistan. The tribes on both sides of the border intermarry,trade and feud with one another. They largely share a common religious sect, Sunni or Hanafi Islam.

These tribes have been living together for centuries and even today’s Pak-Afghan border has only symbolic significance for them and tens of thousands travel across it on a near daily basis. According to Pakistan’s ambassador to Afghanistan Muhammad Sadiq, some 52,000 Afghans crossed the border into Pakistan everyday in 2009 for business, jobs, medical treatment, education or in order to visit their relatives. More visitors are now undertaking documented travel between the two countries by obtaining visas or visit permits.

The two countries have a long history of mistrust and both have accused each other of harboring the other’s opponents and interfering in their affairs. Pakistan accuses Afghanistan of sheltering Baloch nationalists since the 1970s. The Pakistanis also allude to the fact that Afghanistan was the only country that had resisted Pakistan’s membership of the United Nations and that as recently as the communist regime in Afghanistan it had closer relations with India than with Pakistan.The increasing Indian influence in Afghanistan in the present context also adds to Pakistan’s concerns. Afghanistan says that Pakistan supported the Afghan Taliban in the 1990s, and provided refuge and shelter to them later in its tribal areas and other parts such as Quetta from where they, along with Pakistani Taliban, have regrouped and launched attacks on Afghan, US and NATO forces.4 Some Afghans also criticize Pakistan’s role in the Soviet-Afghan war when Pakistan’s military ruler Gen Ziaul Haq had promoted jihad in Afghanistan, funded thousands of madrassas, armed domestic Islamist organizations, and in the process “militarized and radicalized the border region.” Other Afghan concerns relate to Pakistan’s focus on only dealing with Pashtun leaders in Afghanistan, meddling in Afghanistan affairs and not treating the country on equal basis.Pakistan attaches great importance to establishment of a friendly government in Kabul to secure itswestern borders, while Afghanistan categorizes that as Pakistan’s interference in Afghan affairs. After the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, Pakistan had supported the Afghan resistance and later the Taliban, with the same aim.

Although both countries have begun to evolve friendly relations in regional frameworks, the fundamental issues remain intact. For instance, Afghanistan still does not recognize Durand Line as international border between the two countries. Kabul blames Islamabad for fueling the insurgency in Afghanistan in order to destabilize the government of President Hamid Karzai and install a friendly or a more compliant government in Kabul. In turn, Islamabad alleges that Kabul has given shelter to Baloch nationalist insurgents and allows India to use Afghan territory to fuel the insurgency in Balochistan.

However, there is considerable goodwill towards Pakistan among the Afghan people for helping themin their hour of need. In the last 30 years, Afghans of all ethnicities and political views have taken refuge in Pakistan: whether following the mass exodus after the Soviet occupation or flight from atrocities of adecade-long internecine war. At one point, over 5.5 million Afghan refugees were living in Pakistan;currently the number is around 3 million. A large number of Afghans continue to work and study in Pakistan. Some 28,000 Afghans have studied at Pakistani universities and colleges in the last threedecades. Until last year, 6,000 Afghan students were enrolled in Pakistan’s colleges and universities;constituting nearly 60 percent of all Afghans studying in institutions of higher education abroad. Over

500 Afghan nationals attended courses at the Agriculture University of Peshawar alone. Scores weretrained in other professions ranging from medicine to civil aviation. Many successful professionals in Afghanistan today have studied in Pakistan.Similarly, over 90 percent of Afghans who seek medical treatment abroad visit Pakistan. Most of the Afghan patients opt for free treatment at government hospitals or healthcare facilities run by philanthropists and charity organizations. While wealthy Afghan patients are welcomed by many countries, Pakistan has kept its doors open for the less affluent ones also.Presence of a large number of Afghan refugees in Pakistan, the long border, conducive environment for Afghan nationals to live, work and access education and health facilities in Pakistan, and shared religious and ethnic ethos were perhaps some of the factors which prompted Afghan President Hamid Karzai to declare Pakistan and Afghanistan the conjoined twins while addressing the media in Islamabad on March 11, 2010.

The other reasons for Afghanistan’s increasing realization that it needs Pakistan, particularly after withdrawal of US troops, are linked to political, geo-strategic and economic factors. Both countries face similar threats of militancy and terrorism which makes not only bilateral but also regional cooperation and joint counter-terrorism mechanisms imperative to deal with these threats.Bitterness of the recent past seems to be subsiding now and Pakistan is being seen once again as a keyplayer for resolving the conflict in Afghanistan. Both Pakistan and Afghanistan appear set to work together to counter not only militancy and terrorism but also pave the way for a stable and peace ful region. However, despite some positive developments in that regard irritants remain. Both countries have legitimate security concerns which have internal and external dynamics. There is no end in sight to the war on terror in which both countries are partners. The role of the United States and the fate of the war on terror would essentially determine the future of Pak-Afghan relations.