Pakistan - China Relations after US Withdrawal

Saturday, December 22, 2012 - The Afghanistan which kept bleeding in the deadliest civil war in earlier 90’s and then again in the present era, proved to be very fatal for the Pakistan. War on terror not only altered the ground situation of Afghanistan but also kept Pakistan in chaos. After declaring war on terror the USA found Pakistan as its close ally in the region. Pakistan’s involvement was its unavoidable compulsion besides its first and the last choice. Otherwise such a nuclear state would have been a second line victim. Despite providing support to the USA, Pakistan lost almost 50000 people in its own land. The well moving economy remained stagnant, faced intra provincial disparities, energy shortage etc. After almost a decade, Pakistan now regards USA as one of the major causes of the problem in its neighborhood and indeed within
Pakistan. Instability in Afghanistan remained always a concern and head ache for the Pakistan because the internal and external policies got affected. 

The upcoming event, withdrawal of USA and NATO forces from Afghanistan in 2014 or much earlier as demand arises, will certainly involve the whole south Asian region in the intricacies, because many states are positioning themselves to attain their national interests. They want to fill the vacuum which will be left behind by the USA and its allies. It is not clear yet that how and up to what extent these regional actors will influence the future of Afghanistan.

Conflict itself indicates that six nations other than US and its allies will get themselves engaged in the post withdrawal period and they are Pakistan, India, Iran, China, Saudi Arabia and Russia. By mentioning their hidden agenda and national interests, it will be easier to predict the fate of Afghanistan and the south Asian region. India is on its way to Afghanistan with a clear motto that (i) It has to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a heaven of terrorists. (ii) To counter the Pakistani influence in Afghanistan. (iii) Access to the raw material of Afghanistan for its own needs. (iv) Ending the use of militant outfits by Pakistan. (v) It will get engaged with the nationalist insurgency in Balochistan and (vii) definitely India will seek a reach to Gilgit Baltistan. Pakistan’s policy will be against the Indian interests without any doubt, because the stability of later depends upon the implementation of the policies of the former. Despite this Pakistan has to save its own interests and maintain its stability. China has to enter with its interests and they may be access to Afghanistan’s raw materials, seek and provide a soft challenge to India, emerge as a power and to get rid of the US presence.

Iran needs to work for the decrease in the US forces in Afghanistan, its main interests may be to counter the Taliban influence, expanding its economic ties with Afghanistan and India, safe borders with Pakistan, create close ties with Afghan government and to create a stable image in
Afghanistan. Russia has to work for the maintenance of functional government in Afghanistan. It may create an environment to counter the US’s economic efforts in Afghanistan, avoiding long term presence of US in Afghanistan which may be a threat to its socialism and to breed the elements which were its obedient in the past. Saudi Arabia being a Muslim nation and a close ally of the USA, will work to promote itself as a unifier of Sunni community, avoiding Iran’s interference in Afghanistan’s affairs, mainly to maintain a status quo in the ongoing situation and to keep the relation with Pakistan as it is.

These all national interests of these six nations along with others will predict the fate of Afghanistan and south Asia as their involvement with their agendas may pose a threat to the regional stability, which is already on the powder keg. Ones interests are the concerns of other. India’s entrance with its interests may make its rivals (Pakistan and China) angry, because its all objectives contain some stiff elements for them. Its prime rival (Pakistan) will notice and feel the unavoidable threat, because Indian presence in may dilute its relations with Afghanistan. 

Pakistan and China relations

Pakistan and China Relations

Close Sino-Pakistani relations are not a novel phenomenon. While Pakistan and China’s friendship initially evolved in the context of a geo-strategic framework, in the post-cold war era it has become increasingly multi-dimensional. Chinese economy has also taken massive strides within the globalized world. Chinese foreign policy reflects the importance of economic modernization on China’s developmental agenda. It is a matter of some concern therefore that despite Pakistan and China’s robust relationship in the strategic sector, their economic relationship has not prospered proportionately. China-India trade, on the other hand, is now larger than both trade between China and Pakistan and trade between India and the United States. During the late Cold War period, China may have had slightly different strategic alignments, but today, as a major global power, Beijing profits from regional stability and normal working relations with New Delhi, which not only constitutes the bigger market but also has vast potential within the global economy.

The recent handing over of the strategically-located Gwadar port to China by Pakistan is, therefore, an important development as it will place Gwadar on the matrix of intense geo-strategic competition. The port has the potential to act as a catalyst for projects such as the trans-shipment of bulk cargo, oil storage, refinery, petrochemicals, export processing and industrial zones, export of minerals and ship repair industry. When fully functional, it has the potential to benefit many neighbouring and landlocked counties in the region in one way or the other.

Changing regional and global dynamics however, render analyses of Pakistan’s future as a bit of a ‘wildcard’. In the worst-case scenario, increased internal violence and instability has the potential to even daunt Pakistan’s strongest ally. Economic relations between China and Pakistan are indeed growing, but must be considered, therefore, in a wider regional and global context. How then should the future of Pakistan-China relations be mapped out in the context of the evolving international scenarios?